How will the Russia-Ukrainian war affect the EU’s development?


What do the EU’s responses to the Russia-Ukrainian war say about the EU?

by Charlotte van Slooten

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has actually been ongoing since 2014, even though Russia’s invasion in 2022 reignited the war. For the people of Ukraine, the threat from Russia has always been a part of their lives. When we look at how the EU reacted to the situation in 2014 compared to 2022, it is pretty clear that there have been some significant changes over time.

 

Back in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and escalated its actions in Donbas, the EU’s response was quite cautious. They implemented limited sanctions, supported Ukraine politically and economically, and tried to maintain diplomatic ties with Russia. They even worked on managing ceasefires, with Germany playing a big role, especially under Merkel's leadership. Merkel helped define the issues and promote solutions, while some Central and Eastern European countries, like Poland, were pushing for stricter measures. However, the EU sought compromise to maintain unity.

 

Three main factors influenced the EU’s response back then. First, Russia's actions were not officially labeled as an invasion or a war, which led to a softer EU approach to avoid escalating the situation. Second, there was a clear hesitance to arm Ukraine or impose harsh sanctions on Russia; Germany and France leaned towards diplomacy, with Merkel only making threats if negotiations stalled. Finally, international norms and European values played a role in deciding sanctions, especially after the tragedy of MH17. At that time, Ukraine was not perceived as part of Europe in the same way it is now, so the EU was not focused on integrating Ukraine. Overall, the 2014 response was pretty restrained and diplomatic, aiming for European unity while being careful with Russia.

 

Fast forward to 2022, the EU's reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unprecedented. They rolled out eleven sanctions packages, provided military support, and even offered Ukraine EU candidacy status. This was a complete turnaround from their 2014 reaction, showing that they learned from past mistakes when only warnings had not stopped Russia’s aggression. Poland, again, was a strong advocate for tougher measures and the EU responded by backing Ukraine militarily. The Commission also stressed solidarity with Ukraine, showing that it was integrated in Europe.

 

The 2022 response highlighted that the EU is now more unified, flexible, and committed to strong values. It also marked a significant moment for the EU in terms of geopolitical influence. Traditionally seen as more of an economic union, the Russia-Ukraine conflict illustrated that the EU can be a significant player on the geopolitical stage. This change is important, especially with the global power dynamics shifting because of rising powers like China and India.

 

Given that China has been strengthening its ties with Russia and its economy is rapidly growing, the EU's response to the 2022 invasion was not just about supporting Ukraine; it was also about establishing its role in future geopolitics. With China joining Russia in opposing Western influence and providing military support to Russia, the EU had to position itself as a military power that is not solely reliant on the US or other geopolitical players.